ATM Trading Club Newsletter

Monday, August 19, 2024

2007 Cycle Analysis

Patterns repeat themselves…..

Special Edition Newsletter

This edition is all about the visuals. Dive deep into the charts, study every move, and follow the progress closely. Pay attention to the patterns and cycles as they unfold—observe if history repeats itself. Let the charts be your guide.

Can you TELL THE DIFFERENCE ?

Why Would This Time Be Different?

As we approach Wednesday, there's speculation that Powell might be preparing the market for a potential rate cut on September 18, 2024. The conditions we're seeing today are eerily similar to those from 2007. Historically, when the unemployment rate is 5% off its low, as it is now, it has preceded a recession every time since World War II. Additionally, the inversion of the 3-month and 10-year yield curve has been a flawless predictor, signaling a recession 100% of the time.

Currently, every single recession indicator is flashing red, all of which have correctly forecasted the last 12 recessions since 1953. Given this data and the undeniable pattern, the question we must ask ourselves is: Why would this time be different? The market is giving clear signals that should not be ignored.